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post #1 of 87 (permalink) Old 04-05-2020, 10:12 PM Thread Starter
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VIRUS CONTRACTION RATE BY STATE

I am trying to stay busy without worrying about family members. So I decided to analyze some virus statistics.

I have been reading about the "hot spots" in the US based on total number of cases in each State. But that doesn't take into account the total population of each State, it is just a gross number and I think that could be misleading. I searched on the Internet for a contraction rate per population in each State and came up with nothing. So I decided to do my own analysis. I made up a quick Excel spreadsheet and entered in the 2020 population of each State and the number of reported virus cases in each State as of the evening of 4/5/2020. A couple of caveats: 1) this analysis is just a snapshot as of this time and date and results could be different tomorrow, 2) this analysis presumes that the reported virus cases in each State are correct but maybe not, 3) this analysis does not break down the difference between urban and rural populations, just total population per State and therefore contraction rates my be higher or lower in a particular area based on a more detailed study of population density in that particular area.

The contraction rate is not surprising in some cases, but very surprising in other cases. You be the judge.

VIRUS CONTRACTION RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION BY STATE

1. New York = 631/100K
2. New Jersey = 431/100K
3. Louisiana = 282/100K
4. Mass. = 181/100K
5. Conn. = 157/100K

At the other end of the scale

1. D.C. = 14/100K
2. Minn. = 16/100K
3. West Va = 18/100K
4. Neb. = 19/100K
5. Kentucky = 21/100K

The mean for all States is 40/100K. What surprised the heck out of me is that California is always shown as a hot spot but in reality it shows a contraction rate of 38/100K, slightly below the mean. Actually, the Northeast tends to be the hot spot in the US. Be very careful up there you guys. Whereas the central Midwest tends to be the least affected. This analysis puts things more in perspective and gives a more realistic picture in my opinion. If anyone wants the contraction rate for a particular State, reply to this post and I will publish it.

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post #2 of 87 (permalink) Old 04-05-2020, 10:18 PM
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I wonder what DC's secret is? Wealthy politicians?

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post #3 of 87 (permalink) Old 04-05-2020, 10:25 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by ShamaMama View Post
I wonder what DC's secret is? Wealthy politicians?
Good question. Actually DC is predominantly a black population with a black mayor and not particularly wealthy as far as average income goes. My GUESS is that they have better testing, equipment, and mitigation measures there to protect the relatively wealthy politicians.

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post #4 of 87 (permalink) Old 04-05-2020, 11:36 PM
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Iím curious about the number of people tested compared to the population of the state, and how those rates relate to the number of positive tests.

There are a few states that are starting to collect much more comprehensive data, which is a great step in the right direction.
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post #5 of 87 (permalink) Old 04-05-2020, 11:46 PM Thread Starter
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Iím curious about the number of people tested compared to the population of the state, and how those rates relate to the number of positive tests.
Excellent point!
That would be a good data point. I can find no data for test administration at any level. If you find something, send it on to me and I'll plug it into the spreadsheet and run the program.

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post #6 of 87 (permalink) Old 04-06-2020, 12:54 AM
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This is the one my husband was analyzing today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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post #7 of 87 (permalink) Old 04-06-2020, 07:43 AM
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The really frustrating part to me is that the reason MA is so high is that BioGen was so INCREDIBLY STUPID and held that convention in Boston in February, which became ground zero for the outbreak in MA. And because there are so many BioGen employees who live in our little state, and have children in our schools. They all went home and passed it around our communities before they knew they were sick. (Remember, there were almost no tests in late Feb, early Mar, and it took upwards of a week to get results. While Governor Baker was more proactive than many governors, he STILL was not quick enough shutting down schools, IMO, and those petri dishes spread it like wild fire.

One BioGen employee spread it to 11 town officials in the town where my husband works, and they, of course, were all over town, having lunch in all the local establishments, talking to all the local business people, etc, before they could be “tracked down and isolated” because of the week between testing and results in that late Feb. early Mar. time period. Oh, and of course, all the well-feeling people who LEFT that BioGen conference and went through Logan Airport, spreading the disease hither and yon all over the US and beyond. BioGen, of ALL companies should have KNOWN better. They had execs there from Italy and Asia. (I believe China, though not Wuhan) Many other big companies who were not even in biotech were cancelling their conferences at that point in Boston, and BioGen went right ahead.

Would we have Covid 19 in MA without BioGen? Of course. Would we be a “hot spot”? I doubt it. We’d be like the rest of the NE states other than CT, which, unfortunately suffers because it is “suburban NYC”. When the dust settles, whoever at Biogen let that conference happen should face a firing squad for the number of deaths they have caused.

The GOOD news, is that Governor Baker IS on top of things, and shut things down early enough that it looks like we may “ride the wave” without overwhelming our medical facilities. Especially once the Patriots helped us do an end run around the president in terms of getting adequate PPE in here, since he seemed dead set on shutting us down at every turn.


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post #8 of 87 (permalink) Old 04-06-2020, 09:13 AM
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When this is all over, the analysis is going to be fascinating. The Biogen conference is definitely one of the high profile incidents. The Louisiana placement on the high list undoubtedly is going to be traced back to the Mardi Gras celebration. In terms of data collection, I am fascinated with the analysis being released now by various sources on who is complying with shelter in place orders, tracking population movements by cellular data tower contacts. In the end, we may see how this compliance data relates to death and hospitalization rates, which may ultimately be the only reliable data points in light of the continuing failures in testing and contact tracing.
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post #9 of 87 (permalink) Old 04-06-2020, 10:12 AM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EvaE1izabeth View Post
This is the one my husband was analyzing today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Great sleuthing Mr. EvaE. It builds confidence that the data above is consistent with the data I generated for contraction rate (except that the data above breaks it down by million population rather my hundred thousand population, it is still consistent).

So I entered the testing rate above into my data sheet and broke it down by tests per one hundred thousand population per State. The hypothesis that the more testing a State does, the more C-19 virus you will find and that proved to be generally true. You be the judge:

VIRUS TESTING RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION BY STATE

1. New York = 1550/100K
2. Louisiana = 1311/100K
3. Washington = 1156/100K
4. Vermont = 1097/100K
5. Mass. = 1042/100K

At the other end of the scale

1. Oklahoma = 66/100K
2. Miss. = 240/100K
3. Texas = 244/100K
4. Georgia = 262/100K
5. Alabama = 266/100K

The conclusion (and generalizing) is that "blue' States tend to be more proactive in identifying and dealing with virus identification. And contrary, (again generalizing) "red" States are taking the Alfred E. Newman approach, "What, Me Worry?" It is shocking that Oklahoma is not putting much effort in identifying the virus. No wonder the are shutting down hospitals and furloughing medical staff! "I have my eyes shut and I can't see anything ) I suspect that these States that are doing so little testing have a much bigger virus contamination than they expect and will have a real problem in a week or two!

The median testing rate for all States is about 500/100K. Although California is ranked at about the middle in contraction rate, the thing that really stands out is that California is currently testing at 295/100K, near the bottom of the testing rate. The Governor says we can't get testing kits. Hospital staff is telling my family with symptoms that they don't have any testing kits, and I have applied on-line for a test because of my age and some underlying health issues (but admittedly no known symptoms) and I have been told I don't qualify - they say they the kits are in short supply and they are rationing them to those who are MOST symptomatic! What's going on? I fear that California has a much higher infection rate than is currently being reported because of lack of testing.

Regarding D.C., they are testing at 976/100K, up at the top, right behind Mass. So yes, the politicians are making sure they are taking care of themselves and it is working!

I would be interested in hearing Mr. EvaE's take on all this because he appears to be a fellow nerd

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Last edited by Ricky Ricardo; 04-06-2020 at 10:16 AM.
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post #10 of 87 (permalink) Old 04-06-2020, 12:19 PM
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Regarding D.C., they are testing at 976/100K, up at the top, right behind Mass. So yes, the politicians are making sure they are taking care of themselves and it is working!
The scary thing is that even though it LOOKS like our per-capita testing is "high" here in MA, it is STILL scarce as hens' teeth. You STILL can't get it without the "big three" symptoms... fever over 101.5, cough, and trouble breathing, AND tests to rule out flu. Known exposure to known CV19 source also helps. Even with proven pneumonia and two of the symptoms and a temp only SLIGHTLY below at the time of being seen. Otherwise, it's, "Go home and wait it out."

It's CRAZY. I do believe they really DON'T have the tests, though.


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