I am trying to stay busy without worrying about family members. So I decided to analyze some virus statistics.
I have been reading about the "hot spots" in the US based on total number of cases in each State. But that doesn't take into account the total population of each State, it is just a gross number and I think that could be misleading. I searched on the Internet for a contraction rate per population in each State and came up with nothing. So I decided to do my own analysis. I made up a quick Excel spreadsheet and entered in the 2020 population of each State and the number of reported virus cases in each State as of the evening of 4/5/2020. A couple of caveats: 1) this analysis is just a snapshot as of this time and date and results could be different tomorrow, 2) this analysis presumes that the reported virus cases in each State are correct but maybe not, 3) this analysis does not break down the difference between urban and rural populations, just total population per State and therefore contraction rates my be higher or lower in a particular area based on a more detailed study of population density in that particular area.
The contraction rate is not surprising in some cases, but very surprising in other cases. You be the judge.
VIRUS CONTRACTION RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION BY STATE
1. New York = 631/100K
2. New Jersey = 431/100K
3. Louisiana = 282/100K
4. Mass. = 181/100K
5. Conn. = 157/100K
At the other end of the scale
1. D.C. = 14/100K
2. Minn. = 16/100K
3. West Va = 18/100K
4. Neb. = 19/100K
5. Kentucky = 21/100K
The mean for all States is 40/100K. What surprised the heck out of me is that California is always shown as a hot spot but in reality it shows a contraction rate of 38/100K, slightly below the mean. Actually, the Northeast tends to be the hot spot in the US. Be very careful up there you guys. Whereas the central Midwest tends to be the least affected. This analysis puts things more in perspective and gives a more realistic picture in my opinion. If anyone wants the contraction rate for a particular State, reply to this post and I will publish it.
Ricky's Popi
I have been reading about the "hot spots" in the US based on total number of cases in each State. But that doesn't take into account the total population of each State, it is just a gross number and I think that could be misleading. I searched on the Internet for a contraction rate per population in each State and came up with nothing. So I decided to do my own analysis. I made up a quick Excel spreadsheet and entered in the 2020 population of each State and the number of reported virus cases in each State as of the evening of 4/5/2020. A couple of caveats: 1) this analysis is just a snapshot as of this time and date and results could be different tomorrow, 2) this analysis presumes that the reported virus cases in each State are correct but maybe not, 3) this analysis does not break down the difference between urban and rural populations, just total population per State and therefore contraction rates my be higher or lower in a particular area based on a more detailed study of population density in that particular area.
The contraction rate is not surprising in some cases, but very surprising in other cases. You be the judge.
VIRUS CONTRACTION RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION BY STATE
1. New York = 631/100K
2. New Jersey = 431/100K
3. Louisiana = 282/100K
4. Mass. = 181/100K
5. Conn. = 157/100K
At the other end of the scale
1. D.C. = 14/100K
2. Minn. = 16/100K
3. West Va = 18/100K
4. Neb. = 19/100K
5. Kentucky = 21/100K
The mean for all States is 40/100K. What surprised the heck out of me is that California is always shown as a hot spot but in reality it shows a contraction rate of 38/100K, slightly below the mean. Actually, the Northeast tends to be the hot spot in the US. Be very careful up there you guys. Whereas the central Midwest tends to be the least affected. This analysis puts things more in perspective and gives a more realistic picture in my opinion. If anyone wants the contraction rate for a particular State, reply to this post and I will publish it.
Ricky's Popi