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VIRUS CONTRACTION RATE BY STATE

8K views 86 replies 14 participants last post by  EvaE1izabeth 
#1 ·
I am trying to stay busy without worrying about family members. So I decided to analyze some virus statistics.

I have been reading about the "hot spots" in the US based on total number of cases in each State. But that doesn't take into account the total population of each State, it is just a gross number and I think that could be misleading. I searched on the Internet for a contraction rate per population in each State and came up with nothing. So I decided to do my own analysis. I made up a quick Excel spreadsheet and entered in the 2020 population of each State and the number of reported virus cases in each State as of the evening of 4/5/2020. A couple of caveats: 1) this analysis is just a snapshot as of this time and date and results could be different tomorrow, 2) this analysis presumes that the reported virus cases in each State are correct but maybe not, 3) this analysis does not break down the difference between urban and rural populations, just total population per State and therefore contraction rates my be higher or lower in a particular area based on a more detailed study of population density in that particular area.

The contraction rate is not surprising in some cases, but very surprising in other cases. You be the judge.

VIRUS CONTRACTION RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION BY STATE

1. New York = 631/100K
2. New Jersey = 431/100K
3. Louisiana = 282/100K
4. Mass. = 181/100K
5. Conn. = 157/100K

At the other end of the scale

1. D.C. = 14/100K
2. Minn. = 16/100K
3. West Va = 18/100K
4. Neb. = 19/100K
5. Kentucky = 21/100K

The mean for all States is 40/100K. What surprised the heck out of me is that California is always shown as a hot spot but in reality it shows a contraction rate of 38/100K, slightly below the mean. Actually, the Northeast tends to be the hot spot in the US. Be very careful up there you guys. Whereas the central Midwest tends to be the least affected. This analysis puts things more in perspective and gives a more realistic picture in my opinion. If anyone wants the contraction rate for a particular State, reply to this post and I will publish it.

Ricky's Popi
 
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#3 ·
Good question. Actually DC is predominantly a black population with a black mayor and not particularly wealthy as far as average income goes. My GUESS is that they have better testing, equipment, and mitigation measures there to protect the relatively wealthy politicians.

Ricky's Popi
 
#4 ·
I’m curious about the number of people tested compared to the population of the state, and how those rates relate to the number of positive tests.

There are a few states that are starting to collect much more comprehensive data, which is a great step in the right direction.
 
#5 ·
I'm curious about the number of people tested compared to the population of the state, and how those rates relate to the number of positive tests.
Excellent point!
That would be a good data point. I can find no data for test administration at any level. If you find something, send it on to me and I'll plug it into the spreadsheet and run the program.
 
#9 · (Edited)
Great sleuthing Mr. EvaE. It builds confidence that the data above is consistent with the data I generated for contraction rate (except that the data above breaks it down by million population rather my hundred thousand population, it is still consistent).

So I entered the testing rate above into my data sheet and broke it down by tests per one hundred thousand population per State. The hypothesis that the more testing a State does, the more C-19 virus you will find and that proved to be generally true. You be the judge:

VIRUS TESTING RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION BY STATE

1. New York = 1550/100K
2. Louisiana = 1311/100K
3. Washington = 1156/100K
4. Vermont = 1097/100K
5. Mass. = 1042/100K

At the other end of the scale

1. Oklahoma = 66/100K
2. Miss. = 240/100K
3. Texas = 244/100K
4. Georgia = 262/100K
5. Alabama = 266/100K

The conclusion (and generalizing) is that "blue' States tend to be more proactive in identifying and dealing with virus identification. And contrary, (again generalizing) "red" States are taking the Alfred E. Newman approach, "What, Me Worry?" It is shocking that Oklahoma is not putting much effort in identifying the virus. No wonder the are shutting down hospitals and furloughing medical staff! "I have my eyes shut and I can't see anything :lalala:) I suspect that these States that are doing so little testing have a much bigger virus contamination than they expect and will have a real problem in a week or two!

The median testing rate for all States is about 500/100K. Although California is ranked at about the middle in contraction rate, the thing that really stands out is that California is currently testing at 295/100K, near the bottom of the testing rate. The Governor says we can't get testing kits. Hospital staff is telling my family with symptoms that they don't have any testing kits, and I have applied on-line for a test because of my age and some underlying health issues (but admittedly no known symptoms) and I have been told I don't qualify - they say they the kits are in short supply and they are rationing them to those who are MOST symptomatic! What's going on? I fear that California has a much higher infection rate than is currently being reported because of lack of testing.

Regarding D.C., they are testing at 976/100K, up at the top, right behind Mass. So yes, the politicians are making sure they are taking care of themselves and it is working!

I would be interested in hearing Mr. EvaE's take on all this because he appears to be a fellow nerd :nerd:

Ricky's Popi
 
#7 · (Edited)
The really frustrating part to me is that the reason MA is so high is that BioGen was so INCREDIBLY STUPID and held that convention in Boston in February, which became ground zero for the outbreak in MA. And because there are so many BioGen employees who live in our little state, and have children in our schools. They all went home and passed it around our communities before they knew they were sick. (Remember, there were almost no tests in late Feb, early Mar, and it took upwards of a week to get results. While Governor Baker was more proactive than many governors, he STILL was not quick enough shutting down schools, IMO, and those petri dishes spread it like wild fire.

One BioGen employee spread it to 11 town officials in the town where my husband works, and they, of course, were all over town, having lunch in all the local establishments, talking to all the local business people, etc, before they could be “tracked down and isolated” because of the week between testing and results in that late Feb. early Mar. time period. Oh, and of course, all the well-feeling people who LEFT that BioGen conference and went through Logan Airport, spreading the disease hither and yon all over the US and beyond. BioGen, of ALL companies should have KNOWN better. They had execs there from Italy and Asia. (I believe China, though not Wuhan) Many other big companies who were not even in biotech were cancelling their conferences at that point in Boston, and BioGen went right ahead.

Would we have Covid 19 in MA without BioGen? Of course. Would we be a “hot spot”? I doubt it. We’d be like the rest of the NE states other than CT, which, unfortunately suffers because it is “suburban NYC”. When the dust settles, whoever at Biogen let that conference happen should face a firing squad for the number of deaths they have caused.

The GOOD news, is that Governor Baker IS on top of things, and shut things down early enough that it looks like we may “ride the wave” without overwhelming our medical facilities. Especially once the Patriots helped us do an end run around the president in terms of getting adequate PPE in here, since he seemed dead set on shutting us down at every turn.
 
#8 ·
When this is all over, the analysis is going to be fascinating. The Biogen conference is definitely one of the high profile incidents. The Louisiana placement on the high list undoubtedly is going to be traced back to the Mardi Gras celebration. In terms of data collection, I am fascinated with the analysis being released now by various sources on who is complying with shelter in place orders, tracking population movements by cellular data tower contacts. In the end, we may see how this compliance data relates to death and hospitalization rates, which may ultimately be the only reliable data points in light of the continuing failures in testing and contact tracing.
 
#11 · (Edited)
Idaho isn't high as a state, but I've been concerned and watchful of my son's rather sparsely populated county here, which has had the highest-or close to the highest- infection rate per capita in the United States, 1921 per 100,000, as of today. Blaine County, Idaho.

I've also wondered how much more common the virus is, since here in my state we are also told "if you suspect you might have the corona virus, go home and self-quarantine."

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/why-an-idaho-ski-destination-has-one-of-the-highest-covid-19-rates-in-the-nation?fbclid=IwAR07GbLEfiDXSUsO99ADfjLYlW9XZi5ZSkBRGKyhHWNGytKL0f1KiiJ0Xtw
 
#12 ·
Idaho isn't high as a state, but I've been concerned and watchful of my son's rather sparsely populated county here, which has had the highest-or close to the highest- infection rate per capita in the United States, 1921 per 100,000, as of today. Blaine County, Idaho.

I've also wondered how much more common the virus is, since here in my state we are also told "if you suspect you might have the corona virus, go home and self-quarantine."
Ouch!!!!!! @Sheri that statistic is cause for increased vigilance. I ran the numbers on the County I live in is 33 per 100000. This is much less than the rate for California as a whole. However, our County rate is increasing exponentially faster than the rate of increase in California as a whole. So we have residents here who are NOT following directives.

Sheri, I beg you to keep you and yours safe. Follow CDC guidelines and just hunker down for a while. I would hate like heck to take away your bully stick if you don't follow directives (but I know you will). :thumb:

Ricky's Popi
 
#18 · (Edited)
You might be interested in the forecasts at www.healthdata.org/covid. Shows estimated peak date for each state and country. Estimates number of hospital and ICU beds needed at peak and shortfall if any. Also number of respirators.

One factor that I think some are ignoring is that people in the some of the poorer states don't travel much and rarely out of USA. And few people visit from other countries. My state, MS, is poorest in USA and we don't get international travelers here at all (no tourist attractions) . Population about 3M. About 1/3 population is in capital metro area with lots of very rural counties (agriculture and forestry). Our first case was on Gulf coast when a traveler from Florida visited casino. Second case was woman who returned from visit to South Carolina. Travel is a big factor in spread.

MS testing data and results only includes those done by MS Health Dept. University of MS Med Center has done some testing (about 300) not included. https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html#Mississippi
 
#20 ·
One factor that I think some are ignoring is that people in the some of the poorer states don't travel much and rarely out of USA. And few people visit from other countries.
I agree with you and in addition those States that are insular from the coasts and borders seem to be less susceptible to the virus. I speculate that is why the interior of the US is experiencing lower rates of infection. However, that protection to the interior States goes out the window if travel restrictions from other States is removed too soon.

Ricky's Popi
 
#23 · (Edited)
I have populated the current contraction rate (infection rate) as of this Thursday evening. It is obvious that the infection rate continues to grow in all States and the results are not good, more deaths. What I am analyzing is how well each State is managing their infection rate. Most States maintained their same relative position of infections per 100K residents seen in my last analysis. There are some notable exceptions.

BAD these States moved up significantly in relation to other States.
1. D.C. moved up 44 spots (probably because of a recent increase in testing. D.C. shot up from last on the list to 6th on the list of infections per 100K in just a couple of days. So D.C. has become a localized "hotspot", BY MY DEFINITION which is subject to interpretation)
2. So. Dakota moved up 7 spots
3. Texas moved up 7 spots
4. Rhode Island moved up 5 spots
5. Virginia moved up 5 spots
6. Iowa moved up 3 spots
7. Maryland moved up 3 spots
8. several moved up 2 spots which is not significant for the purpose of this analysis

GOOD, these States moved down significantly, meaning that they are getting things under control
1. Washington moved down 3 spots
2. Idaho moved down 3 spots
3. Colorado moved down 3 spots
4. several moved down 2 spots which is not significant for the purpose of this analysis

California held steady in the middle of the pack, right at the median. I only include this on the basis of self-interest. I hope/wish to see CA move down in the list in the days to come but we have been hampered by a lack of testing kits which I just can't comprehend.

Ricky's Popi
 
#24 ·
we have been hampered by a lack of testing kits which I just can't comprehend.
Well, you-know-who said just yesterday that "it's not gonna happen" re universal testing (or anything close to it) by the time he wants to "open up for business as (close to) usual. Whatever that will mean.

The problem meaning that maybe MANY people will be able to go back to work with a bunch of restrictions and precautions in place, knowing that people will STILL get sick, but they will be those better able to tolerate the illness and that we will be able to handle the load in hospitals.

From my personal perspective, and there are a WHOLE LOT of people in my position, it means that I will have to remain pretty much a shut-in until a vaccine is developed if there is no way to positively identify those who have already had the virus and cleared it, or who are not sick at all.

As EVERY medical person agrees (and TRump refuses to hear) testing is KEY to safe re-opening of the country. Otherwise, it is Russian roulette reopening of the country. It is "how brave are you? reopening of the country.
 
#27 ·
The County I live in is about average for contraction rate (infection rate) and about average for testing rate. Today this was posted:

In a press briefing Friday afternoon, Dr. Michael Mesisca, Riverside University Health System-Medical System, said the figures are inline with current modeling showing the county is on track to see more than 65,000 infections and 1,000 deaths by early May.

Infections, hospitalizations and ICU admissions are doubling every 4.5 days, according to the doctor.The modeling is "still playing out" as predicted, and is "freakishly accurate," Mesisca said.


This is a nightmare! As of today, our County death toll, as the result of C-19, stands at 39 dead. That means the number of dead will increase 25 times in the next 3 weeks! Suicide calls in Southern California have increased 900% in March compared to in March 2019. Suicide calls have increased 300% in the last three weeks alone. Mental Health professionals are swamped with no end in sight (many have to make themselves available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week).

I don't post this to scare anyone. These are simply the facts as reported by health professionals. In my opinion it is easier to deal with the known rather than the unknown. I beg each one of you HF members follow the CDC guidelines to protect yourself rather than the false narrative promoted by the WhiteHouse and some Governors.

Play it safe, err on the side of extreme caution, and be well.

Ricky's Popi
 
#28 ·
I had to do an errand today (don't worry, I was safe) and I was astounded how many people were out on the road. I had to pick up something at a friend's aquarium store. I called him ahead, paid over the phone, and although he told me I could come in, I asked him to bring what I needed out to my car. (which he did) But his store was BUSY!!! How can that BE when people are supposed to be ONLY doing "essential" business. I can understand needing something for your aquarium to keep your animals healthy, for sure. But to NEED to go into a store and look at and buy aquarium fish?!?! THAT IS NOT ESSENTIAL, folks!!! I get that people are getting bored, but go for a walk outdoors. It was a nice day. Don't put yourself and others in danger that way!

He took my CC number over the phone and wiped my packages down with alcohol before handing them to me in my car. So HE is trying to do all he can.
 
#30 ·
At first, most of my experience had been that people were respectful and careful, and even if they think social distancing and lockdowns are an overreaction, they don’t want to be rude. The last time I went out, about a week and a half ago, I had to get a single bolt at the small hardware store near my house. This guy was taking up the whole aisle, not even using it, he was on his phone! I finally left to see if they had any paper products and came back, and then there were more people crowding into the aisle! I couldn’t believe it because it was the exact opposite of my experience at the big box hardware store the week before. I had been able to get in and out quickly without getting closer than 10 feet to anyone, and they had plexiglass partitions set up, and sanitizer.

DH already did the shopping for the week but he forgot to get the ham for tomorrow, which my kids were looking forward to. When he got to the store today, they were all out, but someone came out and said he found 4 more in the back. DH lucked out and got one, and went to leave as quickly as possible. He said it just felt creepy, like any minute someone was going to do something crazy over a ham like it was Black Friday. At the checkout, the guy in front of him was wearing gloves, which wasn’t unusual, there were a few customers wearing gloves. DH almost died trying not to laugh when he watched the guy pull the gloves off of his fingertips with his teeth to pay.

Part of the problem right now is that people are “done.” I do get it, I’m feeling pretty nuts and it hasn’t been that long. I’m actually more worried that when it’s time to go back to the busy schedule it’s going to be overwhelming in comparison to all of this down time. But, we just can’t be done yet! And in my area in particular, people don’t seem to get that “flattening the curve” means you don’t see the worst case projections, that’s how you know it’s working, and you have to keep it up a little longer. I think they see it as validation of an overreaction.

The other problem is that this whole situation feeds paranoia. There’s a difference between being cautious, even vigilant, and being paranoid. Gloves, masks, social distancing, pickup orders - those are all reasonable and necessary precautions to take right now. We’re protecting people’s lives! Before this I had never personally seen anyone in a hazmat suit in my life. Now I’ve seen more than I can count. And I’ve hardly gone out! I’m sure there are a few perfectly normal people who happen to have hazmat suits for legitimate reasons, no judgement there. But, I’m also sure that there is a certain type of survivalist personality out there who kept hazmat suits before this for less legitimate reasons, and they seem to be out in full force. And that is a little scary.
 
#32 ·
Part of the problem right now is that people are "done." I do get it, I'm feeling pretty nuts and it hasn't been that long. I'm actually more worried that when it's time to go back to the busy schedule it's going to be overwhelming in comparison to all of this down time. But, we just can't be done yet! And in my area in particular, people don't seem to get that "flattening the curve" means you don't see the worst case projections, that's how you know it's working, and you have to keep it up a little longer. I think they see it as validation of an overreaction.
Exactly. Now is NOT the time to be relaxing and easing up on self-control. We have to remain vigilant! Sheesh.
 
#35 ·
Well I have to come clean..............we visited one daughter yesterday, Easter Sunday. After giving it much thought, we figured out a plan to do it safely. Our oldest daughter lives about 75 miles from us over California freeways. On a normal weekday, that takes about 2 hours. On a normal Sunday that takes about 90 minutes. Yesterday it took us 70 minutes due to lighter traffic. Upon arriving, we parked in her driveway and sat in our car with masks on. She opened her garage door and sat on a lawn chair in her garage about 20 feet from us. Momi had made her an Easter basket (which Momi has done every year of her life). Before leaving our house, we had put the gifts in the trunk of our car, so we opened the trunk remotely and DD retrieved her baskets.

We let Ricky out of the car so he could play with his cousin doggie, JoJo. Both dogs were so happy to have a doggie to play with. Although JoJo is 5 times larger than Ricky, Ricky was trying to climb up on her back and ride her like a horse and JoJo was having nothing of that monkey business, twisting and turning, trying to get that pest off her back! We were laughing so hard.

DD is an administrator at a major public university. She is an 'essential' employee and is currently working 40 hours a week, 3 days at home and 2 days at her quarantined office on campus. She says that the current scuttlebutt from the Chancellor's office is that all 'essential' employees are going to have their hours cut from 5 days to 4 days a week starting in May. She said it is no big deal to her, she will still be able to pay her bills.

We stayed for an hour and had a wonderful visit from afar. We all agreed that this is one Easter that we will never forget! We returned home in the same 70 minutes. We didn't have to stop anywhere, we were always inside the car, not even for gas, since we drive an all electric car and had filled up with "fuel" from our rooftop solar panels the night before. Momi threw together some leftovers for supper - leftover lasagna and a fresh green salad.....and she gave me an Easter basket which she has done every year of our married life!

Ricky's Popi
 
#38 · (Edited)
We had only our immediate family, that we are "quarantining" with anyway. But we still had an easter egg hunt for the little one! It IS a blessing that we have her with us!

We "Facetimed" the other grandparents so they could enjoy the egg hunt too. :)
 

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#39 ·
Our local grocery store has implemented stricter rules. Everyone must wear a mask and gloves. Last Friday I was walking toward the door with my mask and gloves on and noticed a large security guard. After greeting me he said, "there's a line." Then I noticed a very long line in front of the store with six foot markers. When one person exited the security guard allowed another to enter. It actually was nice because there were very few people in the store. This store only allows you to take one box of Kleenex, one roll of paper towels and TP (Cottonelle😊). Everything else was well stocked. At least I know we can get always one roll of paper products per day. I think their idea of not selling packages is for the best because it prevent hoarding. DH went to a chain store early Easter morning and was lucky to finally get a large package of TP.
Our county health website posted as of today there have been 6,773 patients tested, 699 positive, 6,043 negative, 31 pending with average days to result 2.04.
 
#40 ·
In Utah they are able to do something like 4,000 tests per day, but they’re actually only doing about 1/4 of that per day because people aren’t seeking out tests. I’m pretty sure they only need to have one of the symptoms to get a test, though. What I read is that they are capable of testing the general population for asymptomatic carriers but that it’s more complicated than just giving everyone a test. There’s concern about things like timing, such as, if they start testing to screen for asymptomatic carriers, the window between infection and testing may lead to people test negative and then not social distance, only to develop the virus later. They are also expected to be able to do antibody testing really soon, within weeks. But again, being able to do the test doesn’t mean they are quite ready to actually use the test in context of reliable information about the virus yet. At least, that’s the conclusion I’m drawing based on reading so much vague and conflicting information.

I’ve noticed a lot of articles that mention antibody testing will help get people back to work. I hope it will, but I find this really confusing. All of the worldwide researchers keep saying they don’t know about antibodies yet. I don’t know much, but DS had viruses reactivate due to his transplant, so isn’t it potentially more complex? Even as I’m writing, I’m wondering how it’s similar or different to people who got chicken pox twice, or chicken pox and shingles.
 
#42 ·
They are also expected to be able to do antibody testing really soon, within weeks. But again, being able to do the test doesn't mean they are quite ready to actually use the test in context of reliable information about the virus yet. At least, that's the conclusion I'm drawing based on reading so much vague and conflicting information.
EvaE you are asking fair and reasonable questions. Unfortunately, medical professionals often don't agree on the answers because we are treading in all new medical territory and the professionals are still trying to figure it all out. What gripes me is that Dr. Fauci has to retract his rather benign statements to assuage the so-called presidents fragile ego under threat of being fired if he doesn't do it.

Ricky's Popi
 
#41 · (Edited)
Well, the problem is, when you only let people buy ONE roll of toilet paper a day, you are forcing them to come back multiple times when the experts are asking people to limit their trips to the grocery store. So that doesn’t sound optimal either...
 
#43 ·
We probably should have started a separate thread for Easter reports, but oh well. Nice to hear your stories, Popi and Karen. My mom is currently in swing bed at the hospital where my parents live, so my dad can't visit her these days. She has a really good attitude though, so that's huge. My brother-in-law got my dad to connect with his family via Zoom for "lunch" on Easter, then my sisters, my DH, two nieces and I got my dad to connect with us via the Houseparty app (highly recommend for easy connecting with people but also simple games), so I was happy with my dad's Easter despite his being home alone. (This is my dad who I took to Shama's breeder's house to hold puppies for his 80th birthday in November 2018 when my mom had just had her open heart surgery and was still at the hospital in Minneapolis.) Then today, we had a Zoom meeting with 13 friends in France, and my dad (the Zoom expert since he'd attended his first Zoom meeting yesterday) and his older sister (who had never tried Zoom before but was able to connect from her assisted living facility through her iPad) were able to join us! One of our French friends is the woman I lived with in 1993-94, and everyone else was her children, grandchildren, and one great grandchild. When DH and I were married in northern Minnesota in 2000, this woman, her daughter, and her granddaughter (all three were in Zoom today) came to the wedding and spent a week with us at my aunt's lake home. This was a great couple of days for us. COVID-19 actually brought our French friends and my dad and my aunt closer than they'd been for years!
 
#46 · (Edited)
I think this thread provides an opportunity to deal with the known rather than the unknown. It helps me put things into perspective. At times I feel pretty miserable but I realize it could be worse comparing to what good people are having to put up with in other areas. So yes, I'm grinding it out like most other people.

California Gov. Newsom, was just on the national news with a press conference. He said that the infection rate and death rate in California has been declining for the last several days. California "hots spot" ranking has been dropping dramatically when compared to other States as a result. California health professionals have said that it appears we have topped out and flattened the curve and now we can begin to taper that curve in a downward fashion, IF we continue to follow State mandates. He said now is NOT the time to "spike the ball" and open things up. He said that Californicans must continue to follow the California State mandates which are particularly strict. He said State health professionals will advise him when to "let up on the brakes." That decision will be based on science, not on politics. To that end, California has formed an alliance with Oregon and Washington to determine when to open their economies, rather than a political decision made by the so-called president. In summation, Newsom said that the strict California State mandates will stay in place for at least another month. The Governor has provided a clear strategy based on scientific health protocols and this gives me HOPE and optimism.

Ricky's Popi
 
#52 ·
New Hampshire ranks in the middle of the pack with regards to infection rate per 100K population. It has been holding steady in the ranking for the last 10 days or so. It has a better than average testing rate per 100K population, in the upper middle ranking. NH is testing almost double the rate of people compared to California.

Ricky's Popi
 
#58 · (Edited)
I am so tired of Gov Cuomo whining. He expects federal government to do everything for New York after NY received vast majority of federal aid during crisis. NYC got hit hard partly because Cuomo forbid Mayor DeBlasio from shutting down the city on March 17. Does he think we all forgot about his rant that the Mayor had no authority to shut down NYC and no city in NY would shut down without his permission.

" I have no interest whatsoever and no plan whatsoever to quarantine any city," Cuomo insisted."

"There's not going to be any quarantine," he said.

"There's not going to be any, 'You must stay in your house,' rule," he said, calling that "counterproductive."

https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/cuomo-de-blasio-clash-over-possible-shelter-in-place-system-for-nyc/

He finally quarantined NY on March 20 giving Covid-19 three extra days to infect NY.
 
#63 ·
I agree Mikki, testing is the key issue to re-opening the economy. On the other hand, the number of reported cases will go up if there is widespread testing. Now for some good news, at least in my area, it was announced yesterday that testing is now available in my county for those who don't display symptoms. However, you must make an advance appointment and the waiting list is already 30 days. You win some, you lose some.

Ricky's Popi
 
#65 ·
I thought it was interesting back when Karen posted about the context of her own state’s “blue” affiliation. In Utah the state is incredibly “red,” no doubt, but SLC is completely Democrat. There is a defensive push-pull dynamic because of this at times.

I think there are underlying regional dynamics in each state that contribute to their political leanings that make comparing one “red” or “blue” state to another night and day in many cases.

I also think the polarized political parties don’t reflect most American people at all. The very common belief here is to register and vote with the Republican Party as a way of having a voice, so they see Trump as the lesser of two evils, the Democratic Party being the worse evil. I’m so naive to be a grown adult and just realizing this during the last election, but I remember being really surprised at the people I knew who voted for Trump because I thought regardless of party, everyone would vote for the person they thought was the best candidate, and I knew so many people who voted for him couldn’t stand him.

My grandpa died before I was born, but he was a politician his whole adult life, and before I was born my dad was also actively involved in local politics (both not in Utah). My parents always said, my grandpa wouldn’t recognize his own party. My dad became disillusioned with politics and registered as independent when I was a kid. He was always good at listening to all of the different perspectives and thinking about them, and he had a hard time with the growing polarization and “no compromise” being considered at attribute. But, my parents never discussed politics unless we specifically asked what they thought. DD is so politically opinionated, I often have to stop her and make sure she’s thinking her ideas through, even when I agree with her. For a while she was getting these terribly manipulative memes in her Instagram feed, the kind that try to boil down enormously complicated issues into a simple inflammatory statement and then judges whether you agree or disagree without anything in between. Politics has changed so much in my life, I wonder how how it will fit into the big picture when they look back at this time 100 years from now.
 
#66 ·
I thought it was interesting back when Karen posted about the context of her own state's "blue" affiliation. In Utah the state is incredibly "red," no doubt, but SLC is completely Democrat. There is a defensive push-pull dynamic because of this at times.

I think there are underlying regional dynamics in each state that contribute to their political leanings that make comparing one "red" or "blue" state to another night and day in many cases.
Correct. Urban areas tend to be "blue" and rural areas tend to be "red". Areas with higher percentage of people with higher education degrees tend to be "blue" while the rest tend to be "red." Those States with a higher percentage of urbanized areas tend to be "blue" while those States with a higher percentage of rural areas tend to be "red." Interestingly, there is more area that is classified as in rural than urbanized in the US. So, if you look at a map of the US, there is more land mass area shown in red. But there is a greater population base in the urbanized areas, so that is why there is a slight plurality registered as Democratic rather than Republican in the US.

I also think the polarized political parties don't reflect most American people at all.
I agree. If I had my way, I would take politics out of our electoral system. People would run on a non-partisan basis. They would tke positions on some of the "hot button" issues of the day, e.g. climate change, choice, size of government, immigration, States rights, etc. rather a political party coming up with a platform. Most of us are a blend of both progressive and conservative opinions and preferences. I "like" my Congressional Representative, but I wish he wasn't so wishy-washy on some issues.

but I remember being really surprised at the people I knew who voted for Trump because I thought regardless of party, everyone would vote for the person they thought was the best candidate, and I knew so many people who voted for him couldn't stand him.
Utah will probably vote again for the so-called president after he has been so disrespectful to Sen. Romney, both a Republican and a Mormon. Talk about voting against their own best interests!

Politics has changed so much in my life, I wonder how how it will fit into the big picture when they look back at this time 100 years from now.
If we don't do something about climate change, politics will be the least of our progeny's worry 100 years from now.

Peace, Love, and Havanese
Ricky's Popi
 
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